Ken Kapner

When I deliver a training session or course on risk management, I always include the following slide: These are some of the major risk events in capital markets over the past several decades. The most important aspect of the slide is the question mark implying what is next! Of course, we do not know but […]

Introduction Since 2008, much has changed in regard to how the Fed manages monetary policy/interest rates. We might even say “what a long, strange trip it’s been.” Moving into 2025 with the Trump administration, I think that phrase will still hold! In 2015, I wrote an article titled “The Federal Reserve Tools: Past and Present” […]

Introduction Tariffs have certainly dominated the economic news cycle of late. The foregone conclusion by pundits is that they will raise prices for consumers. However, we are currently in a disinflationary environment regardless of what inflation index you look at. Having said that, inflation seems to have bottomed out in the 2.50% neighborhood. The following […]

Introduction In the opening scene of Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark, Indy trespasses into a sacred temple to retrieve a golden idol statuette. The viewer is led to believe that this ancient artifact has existed for quite some time. It is no surprise that it is made of gold as, historically, […]

Looks like the long-awaited move to lower interest rates may have to wait a few more months. Last Sunday night on 60 Minutes, Chair Powell indicated the Fed will be waiting to pull the trigger on lowering rates. His message was that the Fed thinks the economy is in a good place and they think […]

Introduction Rob McDonough and I coauthored an article in April of 2023 concerning Silicon Valley Bank (https://www.gfmi.com/articles/silicon-valley-bank-interest-rate-and-liquidity-risk-within-asset-liability-management/), their interest rate and liquidity policies, and the reasons for their demise. What has changed since the March banking crisis? Let’s take a look at the current interest rate environment, what challenges may be looming during this scariest […]

Introduction Politicians and pundits have been casting blame and pointing fingers at a variety of sources that contributed to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which also resulted in contagion at other financial institutions with similar balance sheet structures. Rather than point blame, it seems like a better idea to examine the way that […]

“When financial markets come under pressure, vital functions such as the efficient allocation of capital and price formation become impaired.” BIS Quarterly Review, September 2022 Recently, there have been various signs of stress in the U.S. Treasury market. Coincidentally, there were two recent reports released by regulators discussing the Treasury market. The first is the […]

What is “stagflation”? It’s when prices for goods and services are increasing while the economy is not growing. Are we headed towards it? Well, by any measure, inflation is a problem. For example, take a look at the consumer price index (CPI) going back to the early ‘70s: Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer […]

Introduction Lots have been written lately about stagflation. Since I have written an article on “Inflation” (https://www.gfmi.com/articles/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-inflation-but-were-afraid-to-ask/) and a blog on “Predicting Recessions” (https://www.gfmi.com/the-long-and-short-predicting-recessions/), I thought I would combine them with an update using today’s economic variables. This article assumes you have read both the prior inflation article and the blog – or have a […]

Introduction First, we had, and still have, supply chain issues. These challenges have led to shortages of goods and the inevitable consequences of shortages – price increases. Sourcing products from overseas has been a decades long movement commonly referred to as globalization. Specifically, companies have offshored their production, i.e., they moved their operations overseas to […]

Introduction Economic fundamentals, supply chain issues, and energy prices have all contributed to interest rates moving higher. The Fed started raising rates in March of this year to combat the rise in inflation. The 10-year US. Treasury started the year around 1.53%, and at this writing is at 3.35%. (Note the TNX is a CBOE […]